Five national issues in the first round of the regional

» By Argonoss | the 03-13-2010 at 10:01 | 92 views (64 unique) | 0 comments | Report post!

Who will be penalized by the abstention?

The extent of the abstention represents the primary ballot unknown. According to recent investigations of the Ifop and BVA opinion, respectively 46% and 50% of respondents think refrain Sunday.This scenario is not unrealistic, insofar as the abstention increased at each regional election between 1986 and 1998.

The first regional election in March 1986, only 22.1% of registered voters is were abstained. The ballot was held along with legislative elections, which favoured a strong mobilization of the electoral body. Six years later, in the regional March 1992, the abstention grimpait 31.4%. The record - to date - was reached while regional March 1998, where the abstention was 42%.Participation however experienced a revival in 2004, for the first regional elections in two towers. Abstentions then reached 37,9% in the first round and 34,3% in the second round.

According to the latest issue of the letter of opinion carried out by the Ifop, voters decided to go to the polls March 14 and 21 are more men than women.The abstentionniste type will be "young, urban, popular" and employee of the public, that after this Institute, the majority of analysts, Countdown might handicap both PS and the FN.Seniors, senior managers and rural should further mobilize, which would be based on the Ifop a hope for the UMP.

• The FN will be rerun?

Photo credits: AFP
What will be, Sunday, the front national capacity to achieve 10% of the vote bar allowing him to remain in the second round?Triangular confrontation in the second round of a list on the left, a UMP list, and a FN list here result almost inevitably defeat most presidential in these regions, as was the case in 2004.

Except coup de theatre, the national front seems guaranteed to exceed the 10% of the vote in Provence d'Azur and the Nord, where Jean-Marie Le Pen and his daughter Marine respectively are list head. The FN could also achieve a score double-digit in Picardie, champagne-Ardenne, Lorraine, Alsace, Haute-Normandie and Rhône-Alpes, where Bruno Gollnisch, rival Marine Le Pen for the future Presidency of the party, is head of the list.

Concerned last November, the UMP leaders want to believe since several months that the escalation of the FN will not ultimately be.Jean-Marie Le Pen, for its part, is convinced that its lists reach "in regions at least 10 to 12" the 10% mark.

• PS - UMP: arrive at the top?

United from the first round of the 2004 regional, the PS and the Greens had obtained 36,86% of the votes, 33,73% total for the UMP and the UDF. This time, surveys créditent the UMP and its allies a score of 29% to 30% of the votes, on a par with that of the PS part only in the first round. European ecology, it, collect around of 14% of the vote.If these predictions are realized, the left-right report themselves will be significantly inflexed in favour of the left in the space of six years.

These same studies show that it is less easy the UMP and its allies to record the strongest decrease categories. Defeated in 2002 then largely in 2007 because the "popular" electorate rejected, the PS seems today towards reconciliation with the workers and the unemployed.

Caution is needed in the analysis because the abstention announces strong, and especially among supporters of right. The comparison with the respective scores Ségolène Royal, Nicolas Sarkozy in the 2007 presidential (26% of the votes for Royal, 31% for Sarkozy) has also its limits: the UMP candidate had managed to seduce beyond from the ranks of right, a "personal bonus" which none of the list to the regional head appears this benefit time. Where the issues that will undoubtedly arise after the elections on the relevance of the strategy of unique lists right and beyond, the ability of a hegemonic party as the UMP to resist a PS renaissant.

• The match between the PS and Europe-ecology

It's the match in the game: after the first round, green succeed to undermine the Socialist positions? In the wake of the European elections in June 2009, where both parties had obtained almost equal scores 16,28% (16,48%), environmentalists were in rising left next to figure of a PS decaying. But after the regional campaign, the "old house" found its dominant place on the left.

For the Greens, coming as the second political force on this side of the Exchequer, the gap of votes tomorrow will determine their ability to establish a new relationship of force. While list merge negotiations will begin tomorrow evening, ecologists intend to request key positions in the future Executive, if left prevails in the second round.

Seen Socialist, was, on the other hand, interest to dig up the difference. Thursday evening, first Secretary of the PS, Martine Aubry, urged voters to Socialist lists a result "extremely high". Behind the regional is ahead in fact discussions in 2012.Solferino Street, we would like green waive to nominate a candidate to the presidential.One says ready to negotiate an agreement for the laws.At the Green debate promises live between supporters of the agreement, as Daniel Cohn-Bendit, and those who, the good result announced at the regional, forts want exist election lighthouse of French political life.

• The fate of Ministers

Xavier Darcos photo credits: AFP
As in 2004, a large number of Ministers and Secretaries of State are candidates for the regional: 19 on a total on 38 Fillon team members.Eight are regional leaders: Xavier Darcos (Aquitaine), Valérie Pécresse (Ile-de-France), Bruno Le Maire (Haute-Normandie), Valérie Létard (Nord), Hervé Novelli (Centre), Alain Joyandet (Franche-Comté), Dominique Bussereau (Poitou-Charentes) and Alain Marleix (Auvergne).Brice Hortefeux to Benoist Apparu, seven are heads of list in their Department.Hervé Morin Rama Yade, Nadine Morano, Marie-Luce Penchard: four others finally appear as "simple" candidate.Four are engaged in the Ile-de-France region of the head of State only.

Nicolas Sarkozy has excluded any scale overhaul after March 21 and welcomed the "courage" of those who went to battle.The score of Ministers is in will not less interpreted.Some might to emerge weakened.

This could be the Ted Huchon Pécresse who wanted to make the Ile-de-France its political springboard but who will find it difficult to dislodge the outgoing President PS case.Hubert Falco, who refused to be leader in Paca, could also pay his package, even if it saves good results in the var where he led the list.Failure to resume the Aquitaine, Xavier Darcos should avoid too heavy to be politically too weakened when hiring the delicate defeat reforming pensions.

This blogpost is an automatic translated version of Argonoss's blogpost

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